The world's largest economy and the main export market for Canada and Mexico. For supply chains in 2026, the questions are tariffs on metals and the future of USMCA.
Updated 10 November 2026. Sources at the bottom of the page.
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026. 2026 and 2027 are IMF projections.
2.3%Real GDP growth, 2026
2.3%Real GDP growth, 2027
3.6%Inflation, 2026
4.2%Unemployment, 2026
126.8% of GDPGovernment debt, 2026
-3.9% of GDPCurrent account, 2026
Trade
Top export markets
Share of the country’s exports, 2025
Mexico (15.5%)
Canada (15.1%)
China (4.9%)
United Kingdom (4.5%)
Netherlands (4.4%)
Main exports
Product groups, share of exports
Mineral fuels, including oil (14.2%)
Machinery, including computers (13.0%)
Electrical machinery and equipment (10.4%)
Aircraft and spacecraft (7.5%)
Gems and precious metals (6.9%)
Main trade agreements
USMCA (Canada, Mexico)
CAFTA-DR (Central America and the Dominican Republic)
Agreements with Australia, Chile, Colombia, Israel, Korea, Peru, Singapore and others: 20 countries in total
Trade policy to watch
Section 232 metals tariffs (from 6 April 2026): 50% on articles made entirely or almost entirely of steel, aluminum or copper; 25% on derivative articles; 10% when the metal was melted and poured, or smelted and cast, in the US. Reduced rates apply to UK metal.
USMCA: at the joint review on 1 July 2026, the US did not agree to extend the agreement. It stays in force until 1 July 2036 and is now reviewed every year.
Energy
The United States is a net energy exporter. Oil and natural gas are its largest energy sources, and it is the world's largest producer of both and the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
What it means for your supply chain
For imported steel, aluminum and copper products, the tariff depends on how much metal a product contains and where the metal was melted or smelted. Ask suppliers for that information.
Supply from Mexico and Canada still benefits from USMCA, but yearly reviews add uncertainty to long-term sourcing decisions.
Mexico and Canada each send more than 70% of their exports to the US, so many North American suppliers depend on the same market and the same rules.
Sources
IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026: GDP, growth, inflation, unemployment, government debt, current account (2026 and 2027 are projections).
U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 population estimates: population.
World’s Top Exports, 2025: export markets and main exports (product shares are 2024 data, the latest available).
Bank of Canada, daily exchange rates, 9 November 2026 (cross rates calculated from CAD rates).
Figures are the latest published at the time of the update and may since have been revised. This page is for general information, not investment or legal advice.